Irish Unification Referendum Should Not Turn Into 'A Sequel to Brexit', Commentators Caution

A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.

"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but hardly any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Possibility of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."